Senate

Trump Didn’t Go Away, and Neither Did Democratic Anger at Him

It’s a trite expression in politics — it all comes down to turnout.

Sometimes it’s used by long shot campaigns in a desperate bit of spin to motivate volunteers to keep working through election day. Sometimes it’s used by analysts who cannot discern the favorite in a tossup race. But it’s rare for this trite phrase to be a useful bit of political analysis.

The 2021 Georgia runoff elections are an exception to this rule of politics. …


Election 2020

Act of voting has been transformed by the unusual nature of the 2020 and the unusual nature of the President

We sit one day before the Election Day 2F020? What’s the most important fact about this year’s election to date?

I would argue it is the fact that 94 million voters have already cast their ballot, according to data collected by the US Elections Project. That’s nearly twice as much as the 47 million who voted early in 2016, and just over two-thirds of the total turnout in the 2016 election. Americans are voting this year, and voting early.

There are three trends in the 2020 election that the huge number of early votes helps illustrate:

  1. The race has been…


Election 2020

Discussing a Candidates’ Biography and Record Builds Credibility and Likeability with Voters, While Avoiding the Drawbacks of Policy Specifics

In the first half of September, the Joe Biden campaign aired an ad titled “Personal.” The ad “connects Biden’s tragic family losses with the widespread anxiety over health care coverage.”


Election 2020

What is the state of the presidential race right now? Some, like Harry Enten of CNN say the defining characteristic of the race is a “stability [that] is record breaking when looking at polling data back to 1940.” Others, like Astead Herndon and Annie Karni of the New York Times say it is a “steady race…The great electoral tightening, feared by Democrats and anticipated by Republicans, has yet to manifest.”

2020 will be remembered for generations due to the global pandemic, massive protests over racial injustice, and economic downturn caused by a national shutdown in response to the COVID-19 outbreak…


Politics

Democrats “set [a] high bar in money race” for the second quarter of 2020. This “fundraising moment” allowed Democratic candidates to “blow past their Republican opponents,” as Democratic Senate candidates “pulled in a combined $102 million,” $32 million more than the total raised by Republicans.

Concerns about the potential of the coronavirus pandemic to impede campaign fundraising were overcome by adaptation to increased use of digital strategies and online fundraisers. The Democratic haul was attributed to “a surge in donor engagement.” As a result, “most Democrats in competitive Senate races outraised the Republican incumbent.” …


Politics and Election 2020

Bowman’s Upset Win Was Not About the Transformation of the Democratic Party. It Was About the Unique Progressive Infrastructure of New York Politics.

Jamaal Bowman’s upset win over incumbent Eliot Engel in the Democratic primary in New York’s 16th congressional district was hailed as part of an “insurgent wave” in a races that was a “focal point for the party’s directional battle.” Bowman’s victory “encapsulated the political moment.”

What was the moment?

Its was a moment of a “new dynamic within Black politics” with Bowman as “the new face of the Democratic Party.” Democratic voters showed a “sea change in…


Politics and Election 2020

Mikie Sherrill was one of the most impressive politicians of the 2018 election cycle, and the embodiment of this era of “weak parties and strong partisanship.”

When the federal prosecutor andF former Naval helicopter pilot declared her candidacy for the New Jersey 11th congressional district, local journalists gave it only cursory coverage.

Drawing on energy from local activists who were protesting Rep. Rodney Freylinghuysen’s refusal to hold town hall meetings, Sherrill quickly connected with citizens groups in her district, and began raising money. Lots of it. She raised $500,000 in the third quarter of 2017. …


A quick update on a couple of numbers.

  1. A whole bunch of national polls have come out in the last few days. The show that Donald Trump’s recent climb has plateaued and that the race has stabilized with a Clinton lead of 3 to 4 points. Here’s the latest projections from The Upshot, which is section of the New York Times online.

This aggregation has Clinton stable over the last month, and a Trump rise. That has stabilized to a Clinton lead.

2. Clinton continues to have a large Electoral College advantage. Here’s NBC’s latest “Battleground” map. Clinton has secure…


I started writing these pieces because a bunch of you were asking me (very nervously) about this year’s election. Over the last few weeks, those questions stopped. You didn’t need me to tell you that Hillary was ahead, or that Donald Trump was being, well, Donald Trump.

Then James Comey decided to insert himself in the election, and worries have come back. Understandable, as many members of the media have started hyperventilating “Game Changer!”

It’s not.

There are a couple of reasons for this. First of all, there is almost certainly nothing to the new e-mails. The are almost certainly…


A week ago, we were sweating out the first presidential debate, unsure of what Donald Trump would say and sure that the media would declare Trump the winner because he beat expectations — meaning, they were going to grade him easier than Clinton.

Even though expectations of Trump were criminally low, Trump managed not to meet them. And Hillary was, well, you saw it, sharp, smart, prepared, and able to box Trump in on a number of points.

When you lose a debate, the best strategy is to admit it and try to change the subject. …

Brian Arbour

I am an Associate Professor of Political Science at John Jay College, CUNY.

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