A good week for Hillary
A week ago, we were sweating out the first presidential debate, unsure of what Donald Trump would say and sure that the media would declare Trump the winner because he beat expectations — meaning, they were going to grade him easier than Clinton.
Even though expectations of Trump were criminally low, Trump managed not to meet them. And Hillary was, well, you saw it, sharp, smart, prepared, and able to box Trump in on a number of points.
When you lose a debate, the best strategy is to admit it and try to change the subject. Not Trump, who decided to continue to discuss Alicia Machado…and then his taxes came out.
In short, it was a great week for Hillary and a terrible week for Trump. This is reflected in the polls as well. The stand alone polls that have come out since the debate are Clinton +6, Clinton +6, Clinton +5, Clinton +5, Clinton +4, Clinton +5. In short, she’s ahead and ahead in a good way.
The Pollster.com average shows that Clinton has a 6 point lead — 48 to 42.
This average shows that Trump has lost about 1.5 points since last weekend. I should note that the Pollster.com average is designed to move slowly, and not be fooled by 1 or 2 polls. In short, this is a problematic move.
Hillary’s good week in the national polls is also reflected in the state polls. Here’s a chart published today by Nate Silver.
Silver writes: “But Clinton’s advantage in the post-debate data is just as clear. Out of 20 post-debate polls in swing states, she’s led in 18, trailed in only one (today’s Quinnipiac poll of Ohio) and was tied in one other.2 Overall, the post-debate polls look a lot like the results that President Obama had against Mitt Romney in the 2012 election”
In short, this is a good week for Clinton and she is in a commanding position in the electorate. The good news for her is that the story of Trump’s taxes will help her. How will they help her? Well, it is unclear to me that they will change the opinion of an appreciable number of voters. It will not turn off any Clinton supporters, but Trump has a base, and they probably agree with Rudy Guiliani that figuring out how not to pay taxes is “genius.” But Trump is behind (see above), and a focus on Trump’s taxes takes bandwith away from Trump’s ability to focus on more effective messages. In short, Trump does not have much of a chance to turn things in his favor this week, and every day that he cannot turn things around gets us one day closer to election day. In short, time is running out on Trump.
